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October 24, 2025 – Lebanon –
Lebanese journalist Sami Kleib has cautioned that although officials are offering many assurances of stability, they may be misleading given what he perceives as an imminent escalation in Israeli military activity in Lebanon. He states that his sources suggest South Lebanon and other regions used by Hezbollah or considered its base of support are likely to face intensified operations from Israel.
Kleib argues that instead of broad open warfare, Israel appears to be planning a calibrated plan of action aimed at degrading Hezbollah’s military-political capabilities. He expects a surge in targeted assassinations and strikes directed not just at fighters but at political and high-level figures within Hezbollah and its support infrastructure, rather than a full-scale invasion.
He warns that observers and decision-makers may be overly reassured by diplomatic rhetoric and public-facing messages suggesting de-escalation or stability. According to him, such messaging could either reflect a deliberate misdirection or a lack of awareness of the speed and scale of an upcoming Israeli move. “Anyone who tries to reassure people that things will be okay is misleading them, intentionally or without knowing,” he said.
The journalist remains firm that while full-scale war might not be the immediate scenario, the damage from escalation could still be severe for Lebanon’s fragile political and security landscape. He believes Israel’s objective is to impede Hezbollah’s reconstruction and re-arming efforts following the 2023–24 Gaza and Lebanon cross-border conflict, rather than initiating an all-out confrontation.
In his assessment, residents, local authorities, and media should not bank on stability or declarations of calm. Instead, they should prepare for a phase of intensified, possibly surgical military operations whose effects may ripple across the border region and reverberate through Lebanese politics.
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